A Landscape of Change in 2025: Canada & USA
Recently, I awaited a phone call with great anticipation. A CWICE Child Welfare Immigration Specialist was at an Ontario land border to facilitate a youth’s repatriation from the USA and reunification with their family in Canada. While I cannot share details to protect their confidentiality, this happy conclusion and successful outcome is notable and timely for a couple of reasons.
Precedent Setting Reunification to Start the Year
Firstly, we’re proud to share that a youth has been safely returned to the care of their parents. I’m told it was a beautiful scene, with many family members present, a fulsome celebration planned by them, and many tears. After months of work, it was an absolute joy to hear. I am very appreciative to my colleagues who persistently collaborated and demonstrated unwavering empathy and leadership. I’m sure those who witnessed this will remember this as long as the family does.
“Since our inception in 2018, CWICE staff have spoken about children and youth (and their families) who find themselves in unique situations across borders which systems, policies, and legislation did not anticipate”.
The work of CWICE is focused on the intersection between child welfare and immigration, settlement, or border-related issues. Without getting into the specifics of one youth’s situation here, those of us working in CWICE have learned to adapt well in complex situations without a blueprint. We have excelled at creating pathways for placements across borders during COVID-19, for example, and will continue to advocate for responses that support the wishes and views of children and youth.
In our work, we always start from a place of understanding that pathways for children and youth are important for professionals to carve and create. When we work with people, and the lives of people aren’t lived in a pre-conceived system construct, we must challenge ourselves to innovate. We must remember that someone else may face a similar circumstance and may need this path in the future.
As we take this example from our practice, and turn our minds to the landscape before us in 2025 there are many changes on the horizon. The year appears now to be full of changes already announced, shifts that have been driven by public narrative and the media over the last year. We try to communicate and synthesize the changes now, which we know are ahead, and will keep you informed as the year progresses and more become visible.
Changes in Canada and its Immigration System
Canadian Citizenship
In early January 2025, the Canadian Parliament was prorogued until March 24, 2025. Unfortunately, this means Bill S-235, which CWICE and many stakeholders widely supported, has been “entirely terminated”1. Since 2023, CWICE has been supporting Bill S-235 as it sought to prevent the removal from Canada of individuals in out-of-home care, while allowing a pathway to citizenship for those transitioning from the care of child welfare services across Canada2. We will continue to provide updates once they are available on this important development.
Permanent Residency Changes
As we announced in early 2024, there were two new temporary policies enacted that would support children/youth in care across Canada. The first related to Temporary Resident Permits and the second related to Permanent Residency for those in care 365+ days3. These are temporary policies, set to expire in 2027, and we encourage all child welfare professionals to refer children, youth, and young adult clients for service if they are eligible.
In late 2024, Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) announced it will reduce its permanent residency (PR) target for the next few years. In 2025, the number of people accepted for PR will move from the 500,000 projected to 395,0004. This year IRCC’s focus will be on processing in-Canada applicants for PR, with a higher proportion being economic immigrants4.
Canada will temporarily stop accepting new parent and grandparent permanent residency sponsorship applications, and will focus on processing existing ones from 20244. The government aims to process 15,000 applications from 20244. The pause of new sponsorships may help to clear backlogs as the average processing time is 24 months4.
As of November 29, 2024, Canada has temporarily stopped accepting new applications from groups of five and community sponsors under the Private Sponsorship of Refugees (PSR) Program due to high demand and lengthy processing times4. This pause will remain in effect until December 31, 2025, and IRCC intends to continue to resettle 23,000 privately sponsored refugees in 20254.
The Agri-Food Pilot, launched in 2020, has helped over 4,500 agri-food workers and their families become permanent residents4. Due to high demand, PR applications under this program will be capped at 1,010 spaces until May 14, 2025, or when the cap is met4.
Temporary Worker and Student Changes
The government intends to impose tighter restrictions on temporary foreign workers and international students. For example, there will be stricter work permit eligibility requirements and International students will face new caps and work restrictions4. As of November 8, 2024, Canada ended the Student Direct Stream (SDS) and Nigeria Student Express (NSE) initiatives, which previously offered faster processing for certain international students4. Moving forward, prospective students from eligible countries will now apply through the regular study permit stream, which includes Guaranteed Investment Certificates as proof of financial support. In mid-January 2025, further changes were announced regarding work permits for spouses of temporary residents4. Some international students’ and foreign workers’ spouses can apply for open work permits, with some limitations on spouses of international students in Master’s or doctoral programs or in select professions4.
Asylum Seeking / Refugee Claimant Changes
As of April 1, 2025, expired refugee protection claimant documents (RPCDs) will no longer be valid4. Asylum Seekers/Refugee Claimants will be able to renew expired (or replace lost) RPCDs using IRCC's web form. As a result, old paper forms for RPCDs will no longer be processed. Once requests are processed, renewed documents will be mailed or available for pickup at a local IRCC office(s).
IRCC has updated the Economic Mobility Pathways Pilot to help skilled refugees and displaced people. The program updates are thought to make the applications easier4.
Settlement and Immigration Services
In November 2024, settlement organizations across Canada received approval on funding applications for 2025-2027. Many organizations have been notified of decreased funding, while some programs will fully close at the end of March 2025. An IRCC spokesperson confirmed to CBC news that the number of people receiving PR status will change beyond 2025, and further decrease to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027. IRCC shared resources were reduced to service providers as a result6. It was reported IRCC planned to continue to invest $1.2 billion in settlement supports across the country, with the exception of Quebec6. As well, in January 2025, the government shared a plan to reduce immigration staffing across the country by over 3,000 personnel7. In other related news, IRCC announced increased strengthening of immigration consultant regulations and stricter penalties for misrepresenting clients4.
Changes at Canada-USA border9 10 11 12 13 14 15
In addition to the ever-changing Canadian immigration system, we can anticipate changes occurring on both sides of the border this year, and at official port of entries along the border. As the Canada-USA border is considered by many to be a longstanding friendly international border, and a symbol of cooperation between the two countries, it has a historical, local, and global significance.
Canadian & American Visitors/Travelers
In February 2024, nearly half of the 3.9 million trips Canadians made were by automobile to the USA (45%) according to Statistics Canada8. The most popular land border crossings were near Vancouver, Southwestern Ontario, and near Niagara8. The busiest airports for flights returning Canadian travelers from the USA were Toronto, Montréal, Vancouver, and Calgary8. Together this accounted for 87.6% of all air arrivals from the USA8.
Statistics Canada further reported that in the same month, Americans took 1.1 million trips to Canada, with 22.8% arriving by air8. The busiest airports were Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal, and Calgary8. The most popular land border crossings into Canada were near Vancouver in Surrey, Niagara and Fort Erie in Ontario, and Southwestern Ontario8.
Customs Changes
To increase the flow of travel between countries, new pre-clearance facilities are underway in each country. At Toronto Island’s Billy Bishop Airport, travelers leaving Canada will clear US customs before arriving in the USA9. As a result, it is expected that flights will increase with new routes and new cities being accessible. As well, for Americans travelling to Canada, the first Canadian pre-clearance facility is set to open in New York in 202510. Lastly, the largest border crossing project is set to be finalized in 2025 between Ontario and Michigan11.
For Canadian passport holders/citizens seeking travel, The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced at the end of 2024 that the Canadian passport has fallen slightly in its worldwide rank12. After assessing 199 passports, basing the determination on the number of destinations one can access without a visa, Canada is currently in 7th place12. Canada tied 7th place with Malta and Poland and allows a traveler access/entry to 188 of 227 countries worldwide without requiring a visa, an Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA), or obtaining a visa on arrival12. The highest ratings went to Singapore and Japan12. In other changes expected in customs in 2025 are new rules for Canadian travelers to the UK. Canadian passport holders will now need to apply for a newly announced ETA13.
Increased Border Security
Another trend in recent discourse is increased border security. The Alberta government outlined its own plan at the Canada-USA border14. The federal government also released Canada’s Border Plan in December 202415. The plan outlines increased information sharing and protection at the border to prevent fraud, and officials will use new drones and additional surveillance scanning/x-ray strategies15. The Canadian government has faced increased calls of late for border security, including calls from the USA and allegations from India. In recent media, Indian officials have claimed there is rampant smuggling of individuals from Canada to the USA, however this has not been proven through investigative reporting or confirmed as a concern by officials16.
Anticipated changes in USA Immigration System
Child Welfare and Immigration
Since last year, I have been a Canadian Representative, alongside my CWICE Co-Manager Liz Okai, as part of the Child Welfare and Immigration Practice Network facilitated by the University of California, Berkeley in the United States of America. As my colleague and I outlined in our end-of-year reflections article and newsletter17, there is a changing landscape afoot across North America.
In a recent network call in November, 2024, we heard about the many preparations legal and child welfare professionals were making across many states. There had already been a number of announcements made during the election period in the USA. Many service providers shared concerns about the impact on children and families in communities across the country, and some reflected on the many changes of the recent past.
Since that meeting, the network developed a fact sheet (shared below) and have mobilized its communication across the country18. A recent documentary19 further explored similar concerns raised by community of practice members. These include recent changes in criminal inadmissibility, discussions about increased deportations, and concerns about families being separated.
Immigration Policy Changes as of January 21, 2025
Since the start of this article, there are new changes occurring at rapid speed. As I finish writing this article, the CWICE team has been busy trying to keep up-to-date on impending changes announced south of the border. In the last 36 hours, there have been many new executive orders in the USA having a direct impact on immigration20.
The key changes affecting children, youth and families directly is the end to automatic citizenship to those born in the USA to parents who do not have immigration status21. There is also a full pause to all refugee resettlement and asylum at the border, with a plan to end asylum entirely, to the USA21. Lastly, the southern USA border with Mexico was declared a national emergency20.
Just before the start of 2025, Mexican officials tested a new cell phone app for refugees. It would send an alert if they were detained in the USA while seeking asylum22. The notification would be sent to relatives, and this was in preparation for changing immigration polices expected in January 202522. Immediately after this week’s Presidential inauguration, an American app refugees used to schedule asylum claim meetings at the Mexico-USA border was shut down23.
In Conclusion
While changes in the USA may be challenged in court, as refugee advocates feel they are unconstitutional, the new policy directives will remain in place for the immediate future. It remains to be seen how the ongoing changes in the USA will impact immigration here. In Canada, we can anticipate reductions are planned in immigration numbers over the next three years. There are upcoming reductions to funding for settlement services across the country. In CWICE, we are poised to continue to provide service during times of need, uncertainty, and in complex situations where pathways are not yet developed. Whether we are setting a new precedent, such as the youth I mentioned at the beginning of the article, we are committed to providing the highest quality of service to children, youth, and families. As we see the start of many changes appearing on the horizon, it is in the months and years to come where the ripple effect may become most visible in the lives of the people we are here to serve.
To reach us for a consult, please email: cwice@peelcas.org
References
1 The Parliamentary Cycle - Prorogation and Dissolution
2 S-235 (44-1) - LEGISinfo - Parliament of Canada
2 CWICE Presents on Panel Before the Senate: Bill S-235
3 New Temporary and Permanent Resident Pathways for Children in Care
4 https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices.html
5 Immigrate through the Economic Mobility Pathways Pilot: How the pilot works - Canada.ca
6 Federal funding for some B.C. newcomer support programs cut | CBC News
7 Federal immigration department to cut 3,300 jobs over the next three years - The Globe and Mail
8 The Daily — Travel between Canada and other countries, February 2024
9 Toronto's new U.S. border checkpoint is on track to open in 2025
10 First Canadian border preclearance facility in the U.S. will soon open near Ontario
11 Largest Canada-U.S. border crossing will open in Ontario this year
12 Canadian passport named more powerful than U.S. in new global ranking
13 Canadians visiting the U.K. now need to pay for a travel permit - National | Globalnews.ca
15 Canada continues to strengthen border security and immigration integrity - Canada.ca
16 India alleges trafficking of international students from Canada to US | Vancouver Sun
17 End of Year Reflections of 2024
18 Trump-2.0-Top-Tips-Fact-Sheet_final.pdf
19 Documentary explores migrant family separation policy of first Trump administration | PBS News
20 Trump signs immigration-related executive actions : NPR
21 Realigning the United States Refugee Admissions Program – The White House
23 Trump shuts down US-Mexico border for asylum seekers, leaving migrants in limbo | CNN Politics
About the author:
Danielle Ungara (she/her) is a Registered Social Worker and Manager in the Child Welfare Immigration Centre of Excellence (CWICE) at Peel CAS. She was involved with the launch of CWICE in 2018 and its evolution since then. Danielle believes in furthering social justice outcomes, and equity, through service excellence, innovation, learning and research.
Thank you to CWICE colleagues Liz Okai, Claudia Obreque and Abimbola Fajobi for editing this article.
